Progressive Slides After Quarterly Earnings Miss and Revenue Shortfall

2026-10-14

Investivoq PriceTracker

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is down 9.3% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The selloff appears tied to Progressive’s third-quarter update released before the market opened on October 14, 2026. While underwriting remained profitable, earnings and net premiums earned came in a bit below Wall Street expectations, which likely overshadowed otherwise solid operating trends.

Details:

Progressive reported quarter-end earnings per share of $4.37, slightly below the consensus view, while net premiums earned of $21.87 billion also came in a little light.

For the quarter ended September 30, net premiums written rose 4% year over year to $22.30 billion and net premiums earned increased 5% to $21.87 billion.

The quarter combined ratio improved to 88.7 from 89.5 a year earlier, and the September monthly combined ratio improved to 90.0 from 100.4, showing solid core underwriting performance.

Even so, year-to-date net income slipped 3% to $2.54 billion, and pretax net realized investment losses were $170 million, which may have added pressure to investor reaction.

Sources:

Progressive Investor Relations, SEC, MarketScreener

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$PGR Insider Trading Activity

$PGR insiders have traded $PGR stock on the open market 15 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 15 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $PGR stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

SUSAN PATRICIA GRIFFITH (President and CEO) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 74,676 shares for an estimated $16,137,856.
JOHN JO MURPHY (Claims President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 14,040 shares for an estimated $2,911,174.
KAREN BAILO (Commercial Lines President) sold 8,452 shares for an estimated $1,797,824
LORI A NIEDERST (Chief Personal Lines Officer) sold 7,339 shares for an estimated $1,535,979
JEFFREY D KELLY sold 7,000 shares for an estimated $1,514,321
STEVEN BROZ (Chief Information Officer) has made 0 purchases and 5 sales selling 5,920 shares for an estimated $1,224,504.
ANDREW J QUIGG (VP and Chief Financial Officer) sold 3,499 shares for an estimated $769,780
JONATHAN S. BAUER (Chief Investment Officer) sold 2,242 shares for an estimated $476,895
DEVIN C JOHNSON sold 980 shares for an estimated $199,038

To track insider transactions, check out Investivoq's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Investivoq API insider transaction endpoint.

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$PGR Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 853 institutional investors add shares of $PGR stock to their portfolio, and 818 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO added 10,295,927 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $2,249,145,253
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. added 4,783,863 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $1,045,034,872
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ removed 4,435,885 shares (-36.7%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $969,019,078
BLACKROCK, INC. removed 4,274,758 shares (-8.2%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $933,820,885
DIAMANT ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 4,048,727 shares (-99.5%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $884,444,413
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS added 3,974,965 shares (+17.6%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $868,331,104
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP added 3,428,801 shares (+128.7%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $749,021,578

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Investivoq's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Investivoq API 13F endpoint.

$PGR Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $PGR stock 3 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 2 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $PGR stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 06/16 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 07/17.
REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR purchased up to $15,000 on 04/27.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Investivoq's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Investivoq API Congress trades endpoint.

$PGR Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $PGR in the last several months. We have seen 1 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

B of A Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 06/18/2026

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $PGR, check out Investivoq's $PGR forecast page.

$PGR Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $PGR recently. We have seen 6 analysts offer price targets for $PGR in the last 6 months, with a median target of $230.5.

Here are some recent targets:

Yaron Kinar from Mizuho set a target price of $243.0 on 07/09/2026
Meyer Shields from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods set a target price of $231.0 on 07/08/2026
Vikram Gandhi from HSBC set a target price of $221.0 on 07/06/2026
Brian Meredith from UBS set a target price of $230.0 on 06/30/2026
Joshua Shanker from B of A Securities set a target price of $313.0 on 06/18/2026
Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo set a target price of $219.0 on 06/18/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Investivoq's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.